Location | Leacock 834 |
Time | Winter 2023, Tue and Thu 8:35–9:55am |
Instructor |
Peter McMahan
(peter.mcmahan@mcgill.ca) |
TA | Khandys Agnant |
Office hours | Thursdays, 4pm–5pm (Leacock 727) |
Work sessions | TBA |
Syllabus | https://soci620.netlify.app/ |
As the second of two courses in the quantitative methods sequence, this class will introduce students to statistical techniques that extend and diverge from standard multivariate regression models. To this end, the course will have two main goals. First, students will become familiar with a range of quantitative methods common in social science research. Methodological topics will include generalized linear models for predicting categorical, ordered, and count data, multilevel/hierarchical linear models, and strategies for analyzing time-series and panel data. Students will learn to critically interpret these methods as they are used in the literature, and to utilize the methods for their own research.
The second goal of the course will be to provide students with an overarching framework to understand the methods we discuss as well as techniques they may encounter elsewhere. Instruction will therefore focus on a probabilistic interpretation of statistical models through a Bayesian lens. In addition to fostering a strong understanding of statistical dependence and parametric estimation, this approach will unify the methods we cover and enable students to build interpretable, theory-driven models of their own.
Students are expected to be familiar with the readings, engage during class (in-class and/or online), complete assignments, and prepare an independent research project.
The scheduled classes for the course will be hybrid lectures, discussions, and instructor-led lab sessions. It is vital that students attend class regularly, having completed the readings and prepared to engage with the topics covered.
Currently, classes are scheduled to be held live in person. Slides and code will be made available before class. Lectures will be live-streamed on Teams (when necessary), and recordings will be posted shortly after class.
Note: While in-person participation provides a much better learning experience, the current pandemic may make physical co-presence impractical or unsafe for certain students. Online participation will be possible with the consent of the instructor. In all cases, the health and safety of the students, their families, and the community at large will take precedece.
In addition to the scheduled classes, we will have a weekly work session (location to be determined). These sessions will be led by the T.A. as a space to practice techniques, raise questions and concerns, and discuss course content with one another. Attendance at these sessions is optional but strongly encouraged.
We will be working with data and learning analysis and visualization in-class, so students must bring a laptop computer with them. Mobile devices such as tablets and phones, even with an external keyboard, will not be sufficient. If you do not have access to a laptop please talk to me as soon as possible so we can work out a way for you to participate.
We will be using the R statistical language and software for data processing, statistical estimation, and visualization in this class. It is recommended that students install the RStudio graphical interface, which I will be using for demonstration in class.
We will use the second edition of the textbook Statistical Rethinking by Richard McElreath for the course (McElreath 2020). The book is available as an ebook through the library website. If you are unable to access the textbook, please let me know as soon as possible.
There will be four worksheets due throughout the semester (see the schedule for specific dates). These are intended to help you learn to use the methods we discuss in R and to give you practice in interpreting statistical models. Assignments should be submitted online through the Microsoft Teams site. Students can work together and consult one another on assignments, but each student should create their own, unique write-up for submission.
Each student will finish an independent research project by the end of the semester. These projects will be empirical, scholarly analyses, including a source of data, a well formed research question, a motivated statistical analysis, and a thorough interpretation of the results. Ideally, the projects will be related to work students are doing outside of class. Projects that represent a piece of a student’s broader research agenda are encouraged. The projects will be graded on the basis of four required assessments:
Each student should arrange a brief meeting with me early in the term to discuss ideas for their research project and the appropriateness for the course.
The evaluation components and due dates for this course are strict. If outside circumstances will make it difficult to meet a requirement please raise the issue with me as soon as possible so we can find a solution. Regular absences will affect your ability to do well on assignments and the final project.
Note: In the event of extraordinary circumstances beyond the University’s control, the content and/or evaluation scheme in this course is subject to change
Worksheets | See schedule for dates | 44% of final grade |
Project précis | Thu, Mar 9 | 5% of final grade |
Project proposal | Thu, Mar 23 | 10% of final grade |
Project presentation | Thu, Apr 6 | 16% of final grade |
Project writeup | Fri, Apr 21 | 25% of final grade |
Students who need accommodation or who are having trouble accessing any aspect of the course may contact me directly. I will make every effort to accommodate individual circumstances—including religious, medical, or other personal circumstances.
Students with disabilities in need of formal accommodation are encouraged to contact the Office for Students with Disabilities (http://www.mcgill.ca/osd/, phone 514-398-6009).
Les étudiants qui ont besoin d’un accommodation ou qui ont des difficultés à accéder à un aspect du cours peuvent me contacter directement. Je ferai tout mon possible pour tenir compte des circonstances individuelles, y compris des circonstances religieuses, médicales ou autres.
Les étudiants handicapés ayant besoin d’un accommodation formel sont encouragés à contacter le Bureau des étudiants en situation de handicap (http://www.mcgill.ca/osd/fr, téléphone 514-398-6009).
McGill University values academic integrity. Therefore, all students must understand the meaning and consequences of cheating, plagiarism and other academic offenses under the Code of Student Conduct and Disciplinary Procedures (see http://www.mcgill.ca/students/srr/honest/ for more information).(approved by Senate on 29 January 2003)
L’université McGill attache une haute importance à l’honnêteté académique. Il incombe par conséquent à tous les étudiants de comprendre ce que l’on entend par tricherie, plagiat et autres infractions académiques, ainsi que les conséquences que peuvent avoir de telles actions, selon le Code de conduite de l’étudiant et des procédures disciplinaires (pour de plus amples renseignements, veuillez consulter le site http://www.mcgill.ca/students/srr/honest/).
In accord with McGill University’s Charter of Students’ Rights, students in this course have the right to submit in English or in French any written work that is to be graded. (approved by Senate on 21 January 2009)
Conformément à la Charte des droits de l’étudiant de l’Université McGill, chaque étudiant a le droit de soumettre en français ou en anglais tout travail écrit devant être noté (sauf dans le cas des cours dont l’un des objets est la maîtrise d’une langue).
Background: probability and Bayesian statistics
(McElreath 2020, Ch. 1)
(McElreath 2020, Ch. 2)
Approximating simple posteriors cont’d: Working with random samples
(McElreath 2020, Ch. 3)
(McElreath 2020, secs. 4.1–4.3)
Linear models and model checking
(McElreath 2020, Sec 4.4-4.7)
(McElreath 2020, Ch. 5)
(McElreath 2020, Ch. 6)
(McElreath 2020, Ch. 7)
Generalized linear models
(McElreath 2020, Ch. 10 and Section 11.1)
(McElreath 2020, secs. 12.1–12.2)
(McElreath 2020, secs. 11.3–11.5)
(McElreath 2020, secs. 12.2–12.5)
Ordinal regressions (Michael Betancourt 2019)
Complications in data and estimation
(McElreath 2020, Ch. 9)
Multilevel models
(McElreath 2020, sec. 13.1)
(McElreath 2020, sec. 13.2)
(McElreath 2020, sec. 13.4)
(McElreath 2020, secs. 14.1–14.2)
(McElreath 2020, secs. 14.3–14.4)
Building more complex models
(McElreath 2020, sec. 16.4)
Presentations
Student presentations 1
Student presentations 2