λ=5.0
λ=20.0
λ=80.0
Poisson with a large λ is closely approximated by a normal distribution
How many cups of coffee does Special Agent Dale Cooper drink in an episode of Twin Peaks?
(Seasons 1 and 2)
λi
log(λi) = α + βXi + …
α ∼ Norm(3.0, 0.5)
α ∼ Norm(4.0, 0.5)
Log normal distributions are not intuitive.
Changing the value of σ can significantly shift the “center” of the distribution left or right.
Si – indicator for season 1
Mean | 95% C.I. | |
---|---|---|
|
-0.097 | (-0.513, 0.291) |
|
0.200 | (-0.414, 0.809) |
|
0.908 | (0.599, 1.337) |
|
1.221 | (0.661, 2.247) |
Figures by Peter McMahan (source code)
Image by 4TinyCats
Still from Twin Peaks (1990)
Promotional image for Twin Peaks (1990)
Still from Twin Peaks (2017)
Nintendo ad via Reddit